Financial cyclones

Modern finance, like meteorology, has devised scientific methods of forecasting and for taking subsequent courses of action. It claims to be able to predict future markets from past variations in Stock Exchange prices. From that moment onwards, financial cyclones would not be any more unpredictable for market analysts than are gusts of wind for meteorologists. Do financial ‘weather forecasts’ exist ? What are the data which the analysts use ? Are these data really “fundamental” ? Such questions are the basis for discussion. Pierre-Noël Giraud maintains that financial crises are unpredictable and inevitable. Christian de Boissieu asks that if we are incapable of predicting the storm, can we not at least feel it coming ? Finally, the analyst Alain Bokobza defends the work of those in the field and appeals for us to venture beyond simple weather forecasts and instead refer closely to satellite maps and analyses which accompany them.